McCain's Plan for Health Insurance

Few would argue that the U.S. has a healthy health care system. Today Arizona Sen. John McCain is giving an address that argues against one thing that is good in the system, employer-provided insurance.

60 percent of Americans are covered by health insurance that is provided by their employer.

"Currently, the U.S. health care system is outrageously expensive, yet inadequate. Despite spending more than twice as much as the rest of the industrialized nations ($7,129 per capita), the United States performs poorly in comparison on major health indicators such as life expectancy, infant mortality and immunization rates. Moreover, the other advanced nations provide comprehensive coverage to their entire populations, while the U.S. leaves 46 million completely uninsured and millions more inadequately covered." -Physicians for a National Health Program

In this light McCain has suggested a change to the current system.

"[McCain's plan is] premised on the idea that the big problem in health care is that Americans have too much insurance – in their words, we don’t have enough “skin in the game” – and that only when we have to buy health care with money that comes directly out of our own pockets will consumers force doctors, hospitals and insurance companies to become more efficient." -Roger Hickey

According to his plan taxpayers would be given tax credit to buy their own insurance. If they can't afford real insurance, then low-cost insurance with high deductibles and many holes in coverage will become standard.

"...those who like their company health care plans could choose to stay in them. The credit would be available as a rebate to people at lower income levels who have no tax liability." -AP

To raise the money for this new system McCain would lift the tax exemption on employer-provided health insurance. This will cause most companies to drop their insurance coverage, forcing employees to use the new system.

Their seems to be many holes in McCain's health care plan that benefit the insurance companies. Is this progress?

McCain's Record Mostly Conservative

AP

Presidential candidate John McCain has fought hard to gain his label as an independent, by chastising fellow Republicans and seemingly working across party lines. This tactic may have alienated him from parts of the Republican party, but he hopes it will gain him the crucial independent vote in November.

Apart from his label as an idependent, McCain's Senate voting record is purely conservative.

The AP released a story outlining his records and positions on key topics.

The likely Republican presidential nominee is much more conservative than voters appear to realize. McCain leans to the right on issue after issue, not just on the Iraq war but also on abortion, gay rights, gun control and other issues that matter to his party's social conservatives.

He is also a supporter of a long term continuing presence of American forces in Iraq.

Project Vote Smart provides a full listing of McCain's Senate voting record grouped into specific topics.

McCain does support stem cell research, which has gained him the ire of social conservatives nationwide. Similar dissaproval comes from the monetary conservatives because of his support of campaign finance reform, the attempt to make money less influential in politics.

On most issues McCain remains strictly conservative. But, the few issues that make him eye candy for independents may sour his chances for full conservative support this November.

Al Gore to remedy dem. infighting?

The UK Telegraph ran an article concerning the possible late presidential candidacy of Al Gore. Senior figures within the Democratic party are said to be considering nominating Nobel prize winning Al Gore if Clinton and Obama continue infighting. Many fear that neither will beat McCain in November. 

Aids to the former vice-president have been discussing possibilities with the senior leaders, who are also those known as super-delegates. 

Polls have lately shown McCain stretching his lead over the other two candidates. Also, as many as a third of Clinton and Obama supporters say they would not vote for the other in November.

Gore is seen as a compromise candidate that could unite the embattled Democratic party.

Tim Mahoney, a Democrat congressman from Florida, said last week: "If it goes into the convention, don't be surprised if someone different is at the top of the ticket." This suggests the party would accept a Gore-Clinton or Gore-Obama pairing.

Hillary's Winning Scenario

AP

The New York Times' Adam Nagourney recently wrote a column analyzing Clinton's remaining chances.

There is only one obvious way for Hillary Clinton to clinch the Democratic nominee seat.

First, she must trounce Obama in Pennsylvania's and Indiana's primaries in April. This would backup worries that blue-collar workers are weary of Obama. It is believed he lost Ohio because of this.

She would also have to win Puerto Rico, which might make up for Latino votes lost with Gov. Bill Richardson's support of Obama.

These two events would need to be followed by enough of an Obama crash in the polls to convince Democratic super delegates that Clinton is the only one who can defeat McCain.

Obama is argues that the will of the democratic populace should not be overturned by the elite super delegates. This argument is so strong that it will probably take a steep decline in the polls to counter it.

Obama Gives Major Speech on Race

Obama gave a historic speech on race relations in the United States and the future of the country yesterday.

The intention was to dampen the uproar over remarks by Obama's preacher, Jeremiah Wright. The speech has gained an uproar of praise all its own.

The speech was written by Obama and only shown to a handful of his advisers before it was given.

The following portion of the speech offers a good summary.

I can no more disown [Jeremiah Wright] than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe. These people are a part of me. And they are a part of America, this country that I love.

Obama gave an enlightening interview to ABC News after the speech.

An MSNBC review and analysis of the speech show the overwhelming reactions of media outlets and the public.

Michigan Re-vote

This election cycle Michigan and Florida changed their primary votes to an earlier date so that their states would hold more power in choosing candidates.

They did this though the DNC told them it would violate policy and invalidate their state's delegates.

That it did, and the DNC has held that stance since.

Now, the two states have been scrambling to put together a re-vote, so that their delegates are not meaningless. This requires the state legislatures approval.

Florida's legislature is Republican controlled, and therefore a re-vote will not occur. But, Michigan has a Democratic controlled legislature that is has proposed re-vote legislation already.

According to MSNBC the Obama campaign just released a memo from top lawyer Bob Bauer, which contains concerns about the re-vote plan in Michigan -- the chief one being that Republicans, independents, and even Democrats who voted in the January 15 GOP primary would be disqualified from participating in the do-over.

Bauer writes, "Since any Republican or independent who did not vote in January in the Republican primary is fully free to participate in the June primary, the effect of the proposal is to enfranchise a class of Republicans while disenfranchising a class of Democrats—the ones who chose to vote in the Republican primary when they correctly understood that the Democratic contest was meaningless."

The Clinton camp has since rebutted his argument, and has stepped up pressure for Obama to accept the Michigan re-vote.

The rebuttal started:

"On February 8, 2008, Barack Obama stood in the aisle of his airplane and told reporters that he would be “fine” with a new primary in Michigan if it could be done in a way that gave him and Senator Clinton time to make their respective cases and the DNC signed off."

The DNC has given Michigan re-vote legislation a thumbs up, for the time being.

Today DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee co-chairs Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt issued a memo to the committee confirming that proposed legislation for a primary re-vote would fit within the framework of the National Party's Delegate Selection Rules. If it is passed by the state legislature and a formal Delegate Selection Plan is sent to the DNC, a meeting will be convened to consider the plan.

Yesterday's headline in the Detroit Free Press sums it up: “Michigan do-over depends on Obama's backing, Senate leaders say.”

Superdelegate Mambo

Clinton picked up two new superdelegates today. Iraq war critic Rep. Jack Murtha and DNC Committeeman Pat Maroney officially put their support behind Clinton.

This changes MSNBC's superdelegate count to Clinton 255, Obama 217; and the overall count to Obama 1,625, Clinton 1,506.

Prior to this, the Clinton campaign hadn’t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since February 7. And, since Super Tuesday, Clinton had lost seven super delegates while Obama had gained 47.

Clinton seems to be holding on just enough to get to the convention.

Obama picks up Iowa delegates

AP

The Iowa primaries were held in January, but at Saturday's convention Barack Obama picked up nine delegates that previously had been allocated to John Edwards.

Iowa has 45 delegates to award candidates. Originally, Edwards won 14. Six stuck with him through the convention, nine switched to Obama, giving him a total of 25 delegates. Hillary gained none at the convention, keeping a total of 14.

Last week Obama increased his delegate lead by six because of a recall in California. With this nine delegate increase he continues to creep ahead.

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, commented on the super-delegate situation. The super-delegates seem impressed with Obama's string of wins.

"If the votes of the super-delegates overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic party," she said in an interview with ABC's This Week. Super-delegates should fall in behind the person who emerges from the state-by-state popular vote with the most number of pledged delegates, said Pelosi.

2,173 of the total 2,500 delegates at the Democratic convention have been allocated at this point.

Obama Wins Mississippi and Wyoming

Obama won 61 percent of the popular vote in Mississippi last night. He netted six more delegates than Clinton, who got 37 percent of the vote.

Obama won 90 percent of the black vote and less than a third of the white vote.

This follows Obama’s Wyoming win over the weekend, where he gained two delegates over Clinton.

Clinton won the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, but only gained seven delegates over Obama in those races. Obama’s latest wins have negated Clinton’s gains in those two wins.

"That's been the essence of Obama's strategy: To pay at least as much attention to the caucus states and the smaller states as to the primary states and the larger states,'' said William Galston, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "And it's paid off.''

• Obama has won 29 states, with a total of 13.3 million votes.

• Clinton has won 15 states, with a total of 12.6 million votes.

Pelosi puts "Dream Ticket" off the table

Getty Images

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said today that a split ticket of any sort with Hillary and Obama would be impossible.

“I think that the Clinton administration has fairly ruled that out by proclaiming that Senator McCain would be a better Commander in Chief than Obama.”

Defeat in Hastert's District a Republican Disaster or Republican Incumbents Falling Down

For 20 years Dennis Hastert held a congressional seat in the 14th district, a solid Republican stronghold in the otherwise blue state of Illinois. As speaker of the House he was one of the best known Republicans in the Senate. And as an incumbent, he recently lost his seat to a Democrat.

“Put it this way: if I told you in the middle of 2006 that Democrats would control Tom DeLay AND Dennis Hastert’s seats in Congress within two years, would you believe me?” -Dday

Bill Foster, a physicist and Democrat, won a special election on Saturday.

Mr. Foster’s success deeply disappointed Republicans, in part for its broader implications: the victory in this early race may buoy Democrats as they look ahead to a string of Republican retirements this fall.

A senior Republican official last night called the loss a disaster.

The NRCC, after a year of fundraising struggles, spent 20% of its cash on hand to win this race. And lost.

They spent lots of money, ran a well-known candidate, took on a Democratic rookie, all in a district that’s backed Republicans consistently for decades.

If the GOP doesn’t look at these results and feel awfully nervous, the party just isn’t paying attention.

Hillary's Still in It; McCain Sweeps to nomination

This morning it looks like Hillary won all three states.

• She barely won the popular vote in Texas 51% to 47%.
• Texas holds primaries and caucuses. Obama is winning the caucuses 52% to 48%. Pretty much evening out the delegate count in Texas.
• Hillary won Vermont 59% to 39%.
• She won Ohio 54% to 44%.
• And she won Rhode Island 58% to 40%.

McCain swept up his states. He will be meeting with President Bush today, where he will be receiving his endorsement. Whether that endorsement will help or harm his presidential run is yet to be seen.

Kucinich Wins!

U.S. Representative District 10 (D)

Candidate % of Votes # Of Votes

Kucinich, Dennis ----(D) 50.27% 68,156
Cimperman, Joe -----(D) 35.32% 47,891
Ferris, Barbara ------(D) 6.48% 8,780
O'Grady, Thomas ----(D) 5.00% 6,780
Palmer, Rosemary ----(D) 2.94% 3,982

Cimperman didn't have enough funding to beat the incumbent, Dennis Kucinich, in the District 10 Congressional race. It was close, but thanks to the split anti-incumbent vote the battle worn Kucinich keeps his seat in congress.

The Kucinich Congressional Challenge

After two failed presidential campaigns Dennis Kucinich is in for a serious fight for his Ohio congressional seat.

Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman has raised half a million dollars and landed high-profile endorsements from the mayor and the city's daily newspaper in the campaign heading into Tuesday's Democratic primary.

Kucinich, 61, a liberal with a political resume stretching over four decades, sensed early that the Cimperman challenge was real. He abandoned his presidential campaign on Jan. 25 in order to campaign for his congressional seat.

Cimperman alleges that Kucinich has been absent from congress and has missed too many votes while campaigning for the Presidency. He has been airing commercials to that effect for months.

With three other challengers on the ballot, Kucinich should benefit from a divided anti-incumbent vote.

Kucinich said he has a 95 percent voting record and helped save steel mill jobs in a city ranked among the nation's poorest and hardest-hit by lost manufacturing jobs and home foreclosures.

Hispanic Voters Come of Age

Four states hold primaries Tuesday. Hispanics make up 20 percent of Texas voters, Hispanics comprise only 1.5 percent of the electorate in Ohio; 5.6 percent in Rhode Island, and 0.6 percent in Vermont.

Hispanics have lagged behind other voters in their political power mostly because so many of them were under 18.

• More than 5 million Latino citizens, either U.S.-born or naturalized, were ages 18 to 29 as of September 2007, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
• 400,000 U.S.-born Latinos a year are joining the voting-age population by turning 18.

The power of that fast-growing slice of the Latino vote may soon be put to the test in Texas, where Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are competing fiercely for the support of Hispanic voters in the state's March 4 Democratic primary.

• About a half million registered voters in Texas have Hispanic surnames, and about a third of the state's eligible Hispanic voters are 18 to 29.

Nationally, the young Latino population is growing so quickly that older community organizations are having a hard time keeping up, said Maria Teresa Petersen, executive director of Voto Latino, a nonpartisan group.

Voto Latino is trying to reach young voters through the Web and text messages to get them to the polls.

• About 78 percent of English-dominant Latinos are online.

• 49 percent of Latino cell phone users send and receive text messages.

The group plans to text get-out-the-vote messages to young Hispanics.

While the debate over immigration is driving some young Latinos to the polls, their interests extend to other issues, such as education, the war and the economy.

Campaign Promises Meet Reality

McCain:

He wants to not only extend President Bush's tax cuts, but eliminate the alternative minimum tax at a cost of about $2 trillion over 10 years and to cut the corporate income tax by 10 percentage points.

Clinton:

She backs $25 billion for home heating subsidies and provide $1,000 tax credits for retirement savings.

Obama:

He promises $4,000 credits to help pay college tuition and to effectively rebate the first $500 of Social Security payroll taxes.

"They're operating in Never Never Land.... None of them are honestly addressing the real challenges that they're going to be facing if they're elected," said Leon Panetta, former budget director and chief of staff for President Clinton. "We're facing a deficit bubble that is getting increasingly worse and at some point is going to explode on us."

These campaign pledges are no better than the Junior High class president who promised to install a soda fountain in the school. It is classic political demagoguery.

But even if the next president "pays for" new initiatives, they will still be left with an underlying budget deficit exceeding $400 billion and the looming crises in Social Security, Medicare and the Medicaid health care program for the poor and disabled.

"They face a collision with reality," said Bob Greenstein, who heads the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. "None of the three candidates is coming to grips with budget realities."

Passing a budget is no easy task. It will be some trick if they can do what they promise while lowering the deficit. The President will be hard pressed, especially if their party does not have a majority in both houses.

Nader Runs Again

Sunday, Ralph Nader announced that he would take another run at the White House, in this years presidential race.

He criticized the top contenders as too close to big business and dismissed the possibility that his third-party candidacy could tip the election to Republicans.

The longtime consumer advocate is still loathed by many Democrats who accuse him of costing Al Gore the 2000 election. -AP

Nader reasoned that most people are tired of the Democratic and Republican parties. Neither party has done what the public wants with the Iraq war and the shaky economy.

"You take that framework of people feeling locked out, shut out, marginalized, disrespected," he said. "You go from Iraq, to Palestine/Israel, from Enron to Wall Street, from Katrina to the bungling of the Bush administration, to the complicity of the Democrats in not stopping him on the war, stopping him on the tax cuts."

Democratic candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton quickly sought to portray Nader's announcement as having little impact.

"Obviously, it's not helpful to whomever our Democratic nominee is. But it's a free country," said Clinton.

Nader took swings at both the Democrats and Repblicans.

He described McCain as a candidate for "perpetual war" and said he welcomed the support of Republican conservatives "who don't like the war in Iraq, who don't like taxpayer dollars wasted, and who don't like the Patriot Act and who treasure their rights of privacy."

He will run as an independent, just as he did in 2000 and 2004. Those last two bids drew Democratic voters and helped ensure Republican wins. It is unclear if this election will be as close, and whether Nader will have the same effect this year.

Hillary's Last Stand

Hillary Clinton's primary race has come down to a last stand in Texas and Ohio.

The NY Times reports that most outside and within her campaign agree that she must win these two states, with primaries on March 4th, in order to have a real chance at beating Obama.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment.

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

But, sccording to the blog Captain's Quarters, Obama must win 70% of the remaining delegates in order to win outright.

However, does the situation really require the panic seen in this report? After all, none of these states are winner-take-all. If Hillary runs close in them, she can keep the delegate gap fairly narrow.

Either way, it looks like no one will be dropping out until the Democratic Convention in August.

Former Prez Bush Backs McCain

Former President George H.W. Bush endorsed John McCain Monday morning.

The patriarch of the current Republican party gave a clear nod to conservatives that this is the man they should vote for. This was especially aimed at uniting the GOP establishment around McCain.

Bush Sr. referred to McCain as a "true conservative."

Many conservative pundits have been upset with McCain's record of votes "against the Republican party." He has twice voted against Bush's tax cuts, pushed new campaign finance law, and worst, he has worked with Democrats on issues like a path to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrant.

The Republican Party is seemingly splintered.

How many top-tier endorsements does McCain need to bring back Republican unity?
Unity is their greatest strength.

Congressional Primaries: Incumbents Fall

Of the states that have had primaries this year only two have had a congressional race on the ballot.

A longtime GOP congressman who initially voted for the Iraq war but later accused the Bush administration of bungling it was defeated by a state senator, joining a Democratic House member in becoming the first incumbents to fall this primary season.

Pundits and politicians around the country have barely spoken of the ever more apparent looming defeat of the war hungry and corrupt incumbents who have gotten too comfortable in their seats.

Perhaps we shall see a bloodless revolution in the halls of Congress.

Watch the incumbents fall.

Obama and McCain sweep up

Obama took a majority of delegates in DC, Virginia, and Maryland on tuesday.

Clinton wrote off those primaries last week and has been focusing attention on Ohio and Texas. Where lies her last shot at the nomination.

Meanwhile, McCain and his not so straight talk express continue to take out the remnants of his opposition: Huckabee... who is actually fairing quite well.

After picking up a chunk of Romney's votes he took Louisiana and Kansas earlier in the week. He still got an average of 29% of the vote on tuesday.

For all thats worth, McCain has essentially cemented his spot as the Republican nominee.

But, he has to run against the voter base that he must have some support from in November. The more he fights Huckabee, the more votes he loses in the presidential election.

The DNC already has a McCain flipflop on Iraq video out:

Romney Concedes

Mitt Romney conceded the race Thursday at the CPAC.

"If I fight on in my campaign all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign, and frankly, I would make it easier for [Democratic Sens. Barack] Obama or Hillary [Clinton] to win," said Romney.

His reasoning sets him up for a possible vice-president spot at McCain's side.

The conservative opinion after the speech seemed to be that his concession was inevitable after his Feb. 5th losses. But, in general they were upset because McCain is seen as far less conservative than Romney.

Throughout the rambling speech Romney mentioned every conservative talking point that he could muster.

"The attack on faith and religion is no less relentless. And tolerance for pornography—even celebration of it—and sexual promiscuity... It is time for the people of America to fortify marriage through constitutional amendment, so that liberal judges cannot continue to attack it!"
"Europe is facing a demographic disaster. That is the inevitable product of weakened faith in the Creator, failed families, disrespect for the sanctity of human life and eroded morality."

"These Jihadists will battle any form of democracy—to them, democracy is blasphemous for it says that citizens, not God shape the law. They find the idea of human equality to be offensive. They hate everything we believe about freedom just as we hate everything they believe about radical Jihad."

"And Barack and Hillary have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror. They would retreat and declare defeat."

Delegates: what really counts

TV pundits make a living at guessing and analyzing, and they fight for the scoop, often stumbling over each other, and all of them end up looking foolish. Super Tuesday was by no means an exception to this rule.

By the afternoon of ST the pundits were using early polls with wildly inaccurate margins of error (something like 25%) to show Hillary winning. NBC news now reports that "Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton." Since all of the delegates have not officially chosen candidates, these numbers come from the complex formula used by the Democratic Party.

Later this week I will put up a post explaining the different methods of counting delegates and the difference between regular delegates and super-delegates.

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An Interesting quote from my favorite forum:

"Obama is favored in at least 18 of the next 24 contests and the Clintons are not allowed by law to raise more primary money from maxed-out big donors. So, it looks like Obama is right now favored to win the nomination and must be considered the front-runner. The Clintons would need new rich donors to win -- and they simply don't exist." - DU

Super Tuesday, the Aftermath

So, Obama won 14 states. More than Clinton's 8. But, Clinton took the ever important California. Most delegates from yesterday's election have not certified their vote, although the AP projected count gives Clinton a 98 delegate lead (902, 1000). There are still about 1800 delegates left in states that have not voted yet; 45% of this race is unfinished.

Obama faired better than most pundits had anticipated, and the momentum is not likely to give up. The next round of primary elections includes: NE, VA, LA, MD, DC, VT, WA; important states that are likely wins for Obama. He also took MO last night. It is considered a "bellweather" state for the democratic nomination.

Today, Hillary's campaign is stressing the need for more debates, a sign that they need to shake things up a bit. If she had not taken CA, she would be on a confirmed downward spiral. But, she won it, and the fight is still strong.

The democrats play a proportional game, splitting up delegates by popular vote, few state are winner take all. In the larger states, the races were close. This caused a fairly even number of delegates to be won by each candidate.

The republican race is still a three way fight, with one horse breaking far ahead. McCain won the big states that were necessary to solidify his front runner position. Romney did as expected, not good enough to surge anywhere near McCain's number of delegates or states. Huckabee did better than expected. It seems as though social conservatives are throwing their weight around in the southern states.

This leaves the democrats in a rough race that will exhaust both of them. While McCain sits as the likely republican nominee, barring any number of mishaps that could befall the 71 year old front runner. McCain now has some breathing room to strategize against the democrats, and not have to fight his republican opponents.