Michigan Re-vote

This election cycle Michigan and Florida changed their primary votes to an earlier date so that their states would hold more power in choosing candidates.

They did this though the DNC told them it would violate policy and invalidate their state's delegates.

That it did, and the DNC has held that stance since.

Now, the two states have been scrambling to put together a re-vote, so that their delegates are not meaningless. This requires the state legislatures approval.

Florida's legislature is Republican controlled, and therefore a re-vote will not occur. But, Michigan has a Democratic controlled legislature that is has proposed re-vote legislation already.

According to MSNBC the Obama campaign just released a memo from top lawyer Bob Bauer, which contains concerns about the re-vote plan in Michigan -- the chief one being that Republicans, independents, and even Democrats who voted in the January 15 GOP primary would be disqualified from participating in the do-over.

Bauer writes, "Since any Republican or independent who did not vote in January in the Republican primary is fully free to participate in the June primary, the effect of the proposal is to enfranchise a class of Republicans while disenfranchising a class of Democrats—the ones who chose to vote in the Republican primary when they correctly understood that the Democratic contest was meaningless."

The Clinton camp has since rebutted his argument, and has stepped up pressure for Obama to accept the Michigan re-vote.

The rebuttal started:

"On February 8, 2008, Barack Obama stood in the aisle of his airplane and told reporters that he would be “fine” with a new primary in Michigan if it could be done in a way that gave him and Senator Clinton time to make their respective cases and the DNC signed off."

The DNC has given Michigan re-vote legislation a thumbs up, for the time being.

Today DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee co-chairs Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt issued a memo to the committee confirming that proposed legislation for a primary re-vote would fit within the framework of the National Party's Delegate Selection Rules. If it is passed by the state legislature and a formal Delegate Selection Plan is sent to the DNC, a meeting will be convened to consider the plan.

Yesterday's headline in the Detroit Free Press sums it up: “Michigan do-over depends on Obama's backing, Senate leaders say.”

Superdelegate Mambo

Clinton picked up two new superdelegates today. Iraq war critic Rep. Jack Murtha and DNC Committeeman Pat Maroney officially put their support behind Clinton.

This changes MSNBC's superdelegate count to Clinton 255, Obama 217; and the overall count to Obama 1,625, Clinton 1,506.

Prior to this, the Clinton campaign hadn’t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since February 7. And, since Super Tuesday, Clinton had lost seven super delegates while Obama had gained 47.

Clinton seems to be holding on just enough to get to the convention.

Hillary's Last Stand

Hillary Clinton's primary race has come down to a last stand in Texas and Ohio.

The NY Times reports that most outside and within her campaign agree that she must win these two states, with primaries on March 4th, in order to have a real chance at beating Obama.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment.

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

But, sccording to the blog Captain's Quarters, Obama must win 70% of the remaining delegates in order to win outright.

However, does the situation really require the panic seen in this report? After all, none of these states are winner-take-all. If Hillary runs close in them, she can keep the delegate gap fairly narrow.

Either way, it looks like no one will be dropping out until the Democratic Convention in August.