Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Super Tuesday, the Aftermath

So, Obama won 14 states. More than Clinton's 8. But, Clinton took the ever important California. Most delegates from yesterday's election have not certified their vote, although the AP projected count gives Clinton a 98 delegate lead (902, 1000). There are still about 1800 delegates left in states that have not voted yet; 45% of this race is unfinished.

Obama faired better than most pundits had anticipated, and the momentum is not likely to give up. The next round of primary elections includes: NE, VA, LA, MD, DC, VT, WA; important states that are likely wins for Obama. He also took MO last night. It is considered a "bellweather" state for the democratic nomination.

Today, Hillary's campaign is stressing the need for more debates, a sign that they need to shake things up a bit. If she had not taken CA, she would be on a confirmed downward spiral. But, she won it, and the fight is still strong.

The democrats play a proportional game, splitting up delegates by popular vote, few state are winner take all. In the larger states, the races were close. This caused a fairly even number of delegates to be won by each candidate.

The republican race is still a three way fight, with one horse breaking far ahead. McCain won the big states that were necessary to solidify his front runner position. Romney did as expected, not good enough to surge anywhere near McCain's number of delegates or states. Huckabee did better than expected. It seems as though social conservatives are throwing their weight around in the southern states.

This leaves the democrats in a rough race that will exhaust both of them. While McCain sits as the likely republican nominee, barring any number of mishaps that could befall the 71 year old front runner. McCain now has some breathing room to strategize against the democrats, and not have to fight his republican opponents.

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