Campaign Promises Meet Reality

McCain:

He wants to not only extend President Bush's tax cuts, but eliminate the alternative minimum tax at a cost of about $2 trillion over 10 years and to cut the corporate income tax by 10 percentage points.

Clinton:

She backs $25 billion for home heating subsidies and provide $1,000 tax credits for retirement savings.

Obama:

He promises $4,000 credits to help pay college tuition and to effectively rebate the first $500 of Social Security payroll taxes.

"They're operating in Never Never Land.... None of them are honestly addressing the real challenges that they're going to be facing if they're elected," said Leon Panetta, former budget director and chief of staff for President Clinton. "We're facing a deficit bubble that is getting increasingly worse and at some point is going to explode on us."

These campaign pledges are no better than the Junior High class president who promised to install a soda fountain in the school. It is classic political demagoguery.

But even if the next president "pays for" new initiatives, they will still be left with an underlying budget deficit exceeding $400 billion and the looming crises in Social Security, Medicare and the Medicaid health care program for the poor and disabled.

"They face a collision with reality," said Bob Greenstein, who heads the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. "None of the three candidates is coming to grips with budget realities."

Passing a budget is no easy task. It will be some trick if they can do what they promise while lowering the deficit. The President will be hard pressed, especially if their party does not have a majority in both houses.

Nader Runs Again

Sunday, Ralph Nader announced that he would take another run at the White House, in this years presidential race.

He criticized the top contenders as too close to big business and dismissed the possibility that his third-party candidacy could tip the election to Republicans.

The longtime consumer advocate is still loathed by many Democrats who accuse him of costing Al Gore the 2000 election. -AP

Nader reasoned that most people are tired of the Democratic and Republican parties. Neither party has done what the public wants with the Iraq war and the shaky economy.

"You take that framework of people feeling locked out, shut out, marginalized, disrespected," he said. "You go from Iraq, to Palestine/Israel, from Enron to Wall Street, from Katrina to the bungling of the Bush administration, to the complicity of the Democrats in not stopping him on the war, stopping him on the tax cuts."

Democratic candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton quickly sought to portray Nader's announcement as having little impact.

"Obviously, it's not helpful to whomever our Democratic nominee is. But it's a free country," said Clinton.

Nader took swings at both the Democrats and Repblicans.

He described McCain as a candidate for "perpetual war" and said he welcomed the support of Republican conservatives "who don't like the war in Iraq, who don't like taxpayer dollars wasted, and who don't like the Patriot Act and who treasure their rights of privacy."

He will run as an independent, just as he did in 2000 and 2004. Those last two bids drew Democratic voters and helped ensure Republican wins. It is unclear if this election will be as close, and whether Nader will have the same effect this year.

Hillary's Last Stand

Hillary Clinton's primary race has come down to a last stand in Texas and Ohio.

The NY Times reports that most outside and within her campaign agree that she must win these two states, with primaries on March 4th, in order to have a real chance at beating Obama.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment.

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

But, sccording to the blog Captain's Quarters, Obama must win 70% of the remaining delegates in order to win outright.

However, does the situation really require the panic seen in this report? After all, none of these states are winner-take-all. If Hillary runs close in them, she can keep the delegate gap fairly narrow.

Either way, it looks like no one will be dropping out until the Democratic Convention in August.

Former Prez Bush Backs McCain

Former President George H.W. Bush endorsed John McCain Monday morning.

The patriarch of the current Republican party gave a clear nod to conservatives that this is the man they should vote for. This was especially aimed at uniting the GOP establishment around McCain.

Bush Sr. referred to McCain as a "true conservative."

Many conservative pundits have been upset with McCain's record of votes "against the Republican party." He has twice voted against Bush's tax cuts, pushed new campaign finance law, and worst, he has worked with Democrats on issues like a path to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrant.

The Republican Party is seemingly splintered.

How many top-tier endorsements does McCain need to bring back Republican unity?
Unity is their greatest strength.

Congressional Primaries: Incumbents Fall

Of the states that have had primaries this year only two have had a congressional race on the ballot.

A longtime GOP congressman who initially voted for the Iraq war but later accused the Bush administration of bungling it was defeated by a state senator, joining a Democratic House member in becoming the first incumbents to fall this primary season.

Pundits and politicians around the country have barely spoken of the ever more apparent looming defeat of the war hungry and corrupt incumbents who have gotten too comfortable in their seats.

Perhaps we shall see a bloodless revolution in the halls of Congress.

Watch the incumbents fall.

Obama and McCain sweep up

Obama took a majority of delegates in DC, Virginia, and Maryland on tuesday.

Clinton wrote off those primaries last week and has been focusing attention on Ohio and Texas. Where lies her last shot at the nomination.

Meanwhile, McCain and his not so straight talk express continue to take out the remnants of his opposition: Huckabee... who is actually fairing quite well.

After picking up a chunk of Romney's votes he took Louisiana and Kansas earlier in the week. He still got an average of 29% of the vote on tuesday.

For all thats worth, McCain has essentially cemented his spot as the Republican nominee.

But, he has to run against the voter base that he must have some support from in November. The more he fights Huckabee, the more votes he loses in the presidential election.

The DNC already has a McCain flipflop on Iraq video out:

Romney Concedes

Mitt Romney conceded the race Thursday at the CPAC.

"If I fight on in my campaign all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign, and frankly, I would make it easier for [Democratic Sens. Barack] Obama or Hillary [Clinton] to win," said Romney.

His reasoning sets him up for a possible vice-president spot at McCain's side.

The conservative opinion after the speech seemed to be that his concession was inevitable after his Feb. 5th losses. But, in general they were upset because McCain is seen as far less conservative than Romney.

Throughout the rambling speech Romney mentioned every conservative talking point that he could muster.

"The attack on faith and religion is no less relentless. And tolerance for pornography—even celebration of it—and sexual promiscuity... It is time for the people of America to fortify marriage through constitutional amendment, so that liberal judges cannot continue to attack it!"
"Europe is facing a demographic disaster. That is the inevitable product of weakened faith in the Creator, failed families, disrespect for the sanctity of human life and eroded morality."

"These Jihadists will battle any form of democracy—to them, democracy is blasphemous for it says that citizens, not God shape the law. They find the idea of human equality to be offensive. They hate everything we believe about freedom just as we hate everything they believe about radical Jihad."

"And Barack and Hillary have made their intentions clear regarding Iraq and the war on terror. They would retreat and declare defeat."

Delegates: what really counts

TV pundits make a living at guessing and analyzing, and they fight for the scoop, often stumbling over each other, and all of them end up looking foolish. Super Tuesday was by no means an exception to this rule.

By the afternoon of ST the pundits were using early polls with wildly inaccurate margins of error (something like 25%) to show Hillary winning. NBC news now reports that "Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton." Since all of the delegates have not officially chosen candidates, these numbers come from the complex formula used by the Democratic Party.

Later this week I will put up a post explaining the different methods of counting delegates and the difference between regular delegates and super-delegates.

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An Interesting quote from my favorite forum:

"Obama is favored in at least 18 of the next 24 contests and the Clintons are not allowed by law to raise more primary money from maxed-out big donors. So, it looks like Obama is right now favored to win the nomination and must be considered the front-runner. The Clintons would need new rich donors to win -- and they simply don't exist." - DU

Super Tuesday, the Aftermath

So, Obama won 14 states. More than Clinton's 8. But, Clinton took the ever important California. Most delegates from yesterday's election have not certified their vote, although the AP projected count gives Clinton a 98 delegate lead (902, 1000). There are still about 1800 delegates left in states that have not voted yet; 45% of this race is unfinished.

Obama faired better than most pundits had anticipated, and the momentum is not likely to give up. The next round of primary elections includes: NE, VA, LA, MD, DC, VT, WA; important states that are likely wins for Obama. He also took MO last night. It is considered a "bellweather" state for the democratic nomination.

Today, Hillary's campaign is stressing the need for more debates, a sign that they need to shake things up a bit. If she had not taken CA, she would be on a confirmed downward spiral. But, she won it, and the fight is still strong.

The democrats play a proportional game, splitting up delegates by popular vote, few state are winner take all. In the larger states, the races were close. This caused a fairly even number of delegates to be won by each candidate.

The republican race is still a three way fight, with one horse breaking far ahead. McCain won the big states that were necessary to solidify his front runner position. Romney did as expected, not good enough to surge anywhere near McCain's number of delegates or states. Huckabee did better than expected. It seems as though social conservatives are throwing their weight around in the southern states.

This leaves the democrats in a rough race that will exhaust both of them. While McCain sits as the likely republican nominee, barring any number of mishaps that could befall the 71 year old front runner. McCain now has some breathing room to strategize against the democrats, and not have to fight his republican opponents.