Thursday, March 27, 2008

Al Gore to remedy dem. infighting?


The UK Telegraph ran an article concerning the possible late presidential candidacy of Al Gore. Senior figures within the Democratic party are said to be considering nominating Nobel prize winning Al Gore if Clinton and Obama continue infighting. Many fear that neither will beat McCain in November. 

Aids to the former vice-president have been discussing possibilities with the senior leaders, who are also those known as super-delegates. 

Polls have lately shown McCain stretching his lead over the other two candidates. Also, as many as a third of Clinton and Obama supporters say they would not vote for the other in November.

Gore is seen as a compromise candidate that could unite the embattled Democratic party.

Tim Mahoney, a Democrat congressman from Florida, said last week: "If it goes into the convention, don't be surprised if someone different is at the top of the ticket." This suggests the party would accept a Gore-Clinton or Gore-Obama pairing.




Monday, March 24, 2008

Hillary's Winning Scenario


AP

The New York Times' Adam Nagourney recently wrote a column analyzing Clinton's remaining chances.

There is only one obvious way for Hillary Clinton to clinch the Democratic nominee seat.

First, she must trounce Obama in Pennsylvania's and Indiana's primaries in April. This would backup worries that blue-collar workers are weary of Obama. It is believed he lost Ohio because of this.

She would also have to win Puerto Rico, which might make up for Latino votes lost with Gov. Bill Richardson's support of Obama.

These two events would need to be followed by enough of an Obama crash in the polls to convince Democratic super delegates that Clinton is the only one who can defeat McCain.

Obama is argues that the will of the democratic populace should not be overturned by the elite super delegates. This argument is so strong that it will probably take a steep decline in the polls to counter it.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Obama Gives Major Speech on Race



Obama gave a historic speech on race relations in the United States and the future of the country yesterday.

The intention was to dampen the uproar over remarks by Obama's preacher, Jeremiah Wright. The speech has gained an uproar of praise all its own.

The speech was written by Obama and only shown to a handful of his advisers before it was given.

The following portion of the speech offers a good summary.
I can no more disown [Jeremiah Wright] than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother - a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe. These people are a part of me. And they are a part of America, this country that I love.
Obama gave an enlightening interview to ABC News after the speech.

An MSNBC review and analysis of the speech show the overwhelming reactions of media outlets and the public.

Michigan Re-vote


This election cycle Michigan and Florida changed their primary votes to an earlier date so that their states would hold more power in choosing candidates.

They did this though the DNC told them it would violate policy and invalidate their state's delegates.

That it did, and the DNC has held that stance since.

Now, the two states have been scrambling to put together a re-vote, so that their delegates are not meaningless. This requires the state legislatures approval.

Florida's legislature is Republican controlled, and therefore a re-vote will not occur. But, Michigan has a Democratic controlled legislature that is has proposed re-vote legislation already.
According to MSNBC the Obama campaign just released a memo from top lawyer Bob Bauer, which contains concerns about the re-vote plan in Michigan -- the chief one being that Republicans, independents, and even Democrats who voted in the January 15 GOP primary would be disqualified from participating in the do-over.

Bauer writes, "Since any Republican or independent who did not vote in January in the Republican primary is fully free to participate in the June primary, the effect of the proposal is to enfranchise a class of Republicans while disenfranchising a class of Democrats—the ones who chose to vote in the Republican primary when they correctly understood that the Democratic contest was meaningless."

The Clinton camp has since rebutted his argument, and has stepped up pressure for Obama to accept the Michigan re-vote.

The rebuttal started:
"On February 8, 2008, Barack Obama stood in the aisle of his airplane and told reporters that he would be “fine” with a new primary in Michigan if it could be done in a way that gave him and Senator Clinton time to make their respective cases and the DNC signed off."
The DNC has given Michigan re-vote legislation a thumbs up, for the time being.

Today DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee co-chairs Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt issued a memo to the committee confirming that proposed legislation for a primary re-vote would fit within the framework of the National Party's Delegate Selection Rules. If it is passed by the state legislature and a formal Delegate Selection Plan is sent to the DNC, a meeting will be convened to consider the plan.

Yesterday's headline in the Detroit Free Press sums it up: “Michigan do-over depends on Obama's backing, Senate leaders say.”

Superdelegate Mambo


Clinton picked up two new superdelegates today. Iraq war critic Rep. Jack Murtha and DNC Committeeman Pat Maroney officially put their support behind Clinton.

This changes MSNBC's superdelegate count to Clinton 255, Obama 217; and the overall count to Obama 1,625, Clinton 1,506.

Prior to this, the Clinton campaign hadn’t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since February 7. And, since Super Tuesday, Clinton had lost seven super delegates while Obama had gained 47.

Clinton seems to be holding on just enough to get to the convention.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Obama picks up Iowa delegates

AP

The Iowa primaries were held in January, but at Saturday's convention Barack Obama picked up nine delegates that previously had been allocated to John Edwards.

Iowa has 45 delegates to award candidates. Originally, Edwards won 14. Six stuck with him through the convention, nine switched to Obama, giving him a total of 25 delegates. Hillary gained none at the convention, keeping a total of 14.

Last week Obama increased his delegate lead by six because of a recall in California. With this nine delegate increase he continues to creep ahead.

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, commented on the super-delegate situation. The super-delegates seem impressed with Obama's string of wins.

"If the votes of the super-delegates overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic party," she said in an interview with ABC's This Week. Super-delegates should fall in behind the person who emerges from the state-by-state popular vote with the most number of pledged delegates, said Pelosi.

2,173 of the total 2,500 delegates at the Democratic convention have been allocated at this point.


Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Obama Wins Mississippi and Wyoming



Obama won 61 percent of the popular vote in Mississippi last night. He netted six more delegates than Clinton, who got 37 percent of the vote.

Obama won 90 percent of the black vote and less than a third of the white vote.

This follows Obama’s Wyoming win over the weekend, where he gained two delegates over Clinton.

Clinton won the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, but only gained seven delegates over Obama in those races. Obama’s latest wins have negated Clinton’s gains in those two wins.
"That's been the essence of Obama's strategy: To pay at least as much attention to the caucus states and the smaller states as to the primary states and the larger states,'' said William Galston, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "And it's paid off.''
  • Obama has won 29 states, with a total of 13.3 million votes.
  • Clinton has won 15 states, with a total of 12.6 million votes.